futurism in education

‘The great thing in this world is not so much where we stand, as in what direction we are moving.’
Some reflections on the literature.

INTRODUCTION
The best predictors of the future that we have are the trends of the past and present.
. Change defines our work as both educators and researchers because by teaching a student to read, it opens new windows to the world and creates a lifetime of opportunities so that we change the world.
When we look at education, we can see a rapidly increasing set of changes.
Humans now want to predict, mould, create and direct social changes, capitalise on them and be prepared for future issues rather than be held back by lack of institutional change. If you don’t move with the flow you will get knocked down in the avalanche.
Are the changes unidirectional (linear and accelerating), unidirectional but in quantum leaps, chaotic with multidirectional changes or are the changes ultimately circular, as most of history predicts?
A chaos model is a good one to view the process of change. Investigations of nodal activity and fractals of change postulate the places to look for drivers towards change. The current drivers of change in education that this paper addresses include knowledge, social, design life, environmental, scale, technology, institutions, political, economic, globalisation, educational and pedagogical models. This paper uses as personal reflection of a literature search as its methodology.


DISCUSSION
Forecasting futures is an ancient art. In the past, magic and spirituality assisted the process. Today scientific programmes, based on past statistics, give more reliable predictions. Expert think-tanks also assess the drivers of past changes to be able to predict future issues and prepare to meet them. Education is seen as a pivotal process towards change management. An analysis of these changes may help us design which way we are moving. This will inform us as to the future planning of education and the difficulties of coping with change.
Knowledge Drivers
The knowledge or information revolution of the last decades has seen an acceleration vector. Generation of knowledge, storage and retrieval have become logistical issues. Multimedia, multi modal text and visual information storage has created flexible rather than static processes. Books, online libraries, CD roms, online journals, the Internet have blossomed into creative, non-linear processes with hypertext displays (Loveless, 2001). This is now seen as ‘distributed cognition’, which has developed as a collective database of constantly changing information that people share and modify (Case, 2007). This knowledge now crosses time, place, culture and social status.
Knowledge production and knowledge retrieval are seen as competitive advantage in business and the new literacies have evolved to cope with the changes of this distributed knowledge (Leu, Jr., Kinzer, Coiro & Cammack, 2004). Technology and knowledge are transactional elements but new literacies, such as how to use a search engine, how to assess relevancy, reliability, validity, authority of information and how to data mine forms the new critical literacy (Net Pedagogy Portal Team).
Knowledge and learning is now seen as socially constructed as people learn to participate effectively in bulletin board or listserv discussions to get needed information. New technology develops in parallel with a growing diversity of culture, language, modalities of communication within a global framework. The role of teachers becomes more important in modelling the new literacies and inculcating these drivers into the new learning model.

Social Drivers
Knowledge is now seen as communal and part of a democratic ownership. No longer is knowledge the power of an elite class (Loveless, 2001). With these changes, other social drivers are altering the future role of education (Hepple et al, 2004). There is now a more seamless and integrated connection between families and the workplace. There is increasing empowerment of people as stakeholders in business and public services.
Trends over the last decades have seen an increase in the number of single parent families and education of women. There is an increased power of the child and adolescent, mirrored in their capability to handle the technology better than their elders. As economics drivers seek creativity and innovation, the young people of the community have the competitive edge.
There is evidence of more students who study from home. There are more minority religions involved in provision of education, which follows the increasing cultural diversity and multiculturalism in society (Jonassen, 2004). Globalisation and new technology has increased the migrant and short- term changes in populations. Society is increasingly litigious and harassment and bullying are no longer acceptable. There is more emphasis on emotional intelligence, team work and leadership skills.

Design life drivers
As technology takes over the mundane aspects of life, people have increased leisure time available. With advances in medical care our life expectancy is increasing dramatically. Thus we have an increasing average age of populations. To cover the cost of this increasing age of needs, people have increased their working life age limit. To cope with the longer work capacity and fulfil the needs of leisure time, there is an increase in life-long and life-wide learning uptake. The Internet and globalisation have also increased our capacity for connectivity and networking. As there are more single working parents, schools are providing longer days and changing roles for students.

Environmental drivers
A major factor of the new millennium and into the future is the environment.
Although we have been aware of the issues of depleted and finite resources for some decades, the shortages of oil, water, biodiversity have only just been acknowledged by the collective humanity. The issues of pollution of air, water and soil are also being addressed with an economic or user pays system. While we wait for technology to find solutions for this problem we are using techniques of sustainable development, cutting waste and recycling. With the issues of the hole in the ozone layer and global warming, the environmental lobby has become a major force. Grass roots movements and ‘think global, act local ‘ philosophy has been a major driver for social change. Education has been the mainstay for this lobby and will into the future.


Scale drivers
More with less is the catchcry of change. Whilst there are more students to teach, there are fewer resources available. Technology is an answer to this push for efficiency, perhaps at the cost of homogenisation and quality. There are less bricks and mortar infrastructures, more paperless offices, more virtual databanks and online libraries to cope. There are both global and micro management scale drivers that connect with the think global act local ideals.

Technology Drivers
Technology is a tool with which the changes for the future will be realized. The changes in this field are so rapid that the majority of people are playing catch –up rather than leading the direction (Loveless, 2001). The general population is taking up technology for personal use with Ipods, PDAs, bluetooth capabilities, mobile phones and laptops. More homes have a desktop computer and more are linked with the Internet every day.
Increasingly understanding technology is becoming part of the basic education. The Internet is expanding and its use is only just being tapped. There is a huge opportunity for its use in education. Traditional education has banned the use of technology but is increasingly seeing the advantages of leading the way through innovation and creativity, rather than following with a delay.
Coupled with distance education trends, and the rise of development and uptake of technology, education is finding the technology revolution an important driver towards the future. The new, virtual, networked environments are creating new drivers to a totally different model in education (Net Pedagogy Portal Team). People are expecting more home based, Internet delivered learning within which they have a more democratic say in the design. Increasing numbers of virtual universities and soon virtual K-12 classes are popular drivers towards change (Heppel et al, 2004).
New Internet technologies, such as FURL, Flikr, MySpace, YouTube, Wikis, Blogs, PodCastings, RSS Feeds, and Immersive Environments are creating new networked social and educational environments (Net Pedagogy Portal Team).

Institutional Drivers
Corporate business management has embraced the new learning, new technologies and the rapid expansion of information as the competitive edge. The structure of corporations is now more horizontal and focussed on teams that seek continual learning to power creativity and new innovations. Rather than leave change to chance, change management must now create the future so that those at the leading edge of innovation are the economic and educational drivers of the future. Learning is thus fundamental to change and is the universal change agent (Lick & Kaufman, 2005). Public institutions, Non-Government Organizations and educational institutions are now also driving for similar models as these knowledge and learning organizations.

Political Drivers
Governments are also driving changes to literacy and a ‘smart’ economy within the global framework of competition and co-operation. The power of governments however is reducing and democratic forces are becoming more powerful. As our working, community, citizenship and personal lives are changing towards community- based collaborative design and action this is also driving change away from mass education and national curriculum foci towards new models of learning (Sanger 2001; Cope & Kalantzis, 2000).

Economic Drivers
The new, post-industrial economy is based on a user pays, democratic yet capitalist model within a global economy. Many upheavals in monetary and economic systems are occurring that will drive future changes in education. Effective use of information and communication are becoming fundamental to survival.
Education towards moral development is an important role for all levels of competency for collaborative drivers to balance this intense competition.
Life Long Learning is a competitive necessity in the new economy. Learning is now seen as using vertical, horizontal, liberal and external learning networks. Learning in the corporative spheres includes codifying prior and tacit knowledge, creating a learning environment, learning networks and setting up learning projects for action based collaborative learning. Models of learning being developed in corporate learning include cultural, structural, socio- ecological, social-constructivists and learning network climates (Poell& van Moorsel, 2007).
Economic drivers include the new markets of entertainment technology.
Using mobile phones, digital cameras, computers, computer games, Ipods and MP3 the young user can develop hand-eye coordination, spatial relations, graphical awareness, parallel reading from non-linear scripts, multi-line plots and problem solving (Sanger, 2001). These drivers influence skills and engagement in the classroom.
As in India, the new economies of knowledge, technology and education will see shifts in the world powers as oil and natural resources become less relevant to our needs (Narayanan, 2006). Knowledge is being seen as a public good that will create a new society of collective intelligence through constructivist and social learning (Sun Lee, 2006)
Globalisation Driver
Cultural, linguistic, racial and religious issues are increasingly driving changes to society as the global construct arises (Vasquez, 2006). Education has a role here for understanding to cross these old divides and the increasing diversity will impact on education at every level. Although globalisation is an economic imperative, the changes impact every level of our lives. Communication needs to be aware of time zones and geographical challenges. Communication now regularly occurs between people who may never meet face to face. Communication faces the challenges of integrating the sameness and valuing the difference of every social structure.
Feminist values of diversity, care for people and the environment and networking is needed to balance the potential difficulties of globalisation. If handled well this driver can see many positive changes. So far globalisation has been used for competitive advantage and global dominance. Already we have seen violent demonstrations across the world because globalisation has been a driver towards poor management and negative outcomes for many. Education for democracy using feminist principles may assist the process of globalisation. Increasingly globalised classes cross the geographical, cultural, linguistic and time barriers using Internet technology and virtual classrooms.

Educational drivers
Faculty Trends
The push for distance education, technology and new learning has created
change drivers for teachers and lecturers. Whilst some will resist changes and resist technology, holding on to traditional values, others will become early adopters. The role of the teacher is now seen as a facilitator rather than an expert. Corporate sponsorship for research challenges ethics and freedom of action previously the reason that faculty members chose academic careers. Limited tenure, assistant teachers, community input to learning and teaching have all impacted on the role of the teacher and lecturer.
Teachers and lecturers have an increasing drive towards their own education needs in alternate areas like technology, education, assessment and cultural awareness. As distance education is increasingly adopted, teachers become more isolated and work from home. Often they put in a lot of hours dealing with individuals rather than a limited timetable of lectures and classes.
Academic Trends
As knowledge and information increase exponentially, major changes are occurring within universities setting trends for all education. Universities now compete in an open market of increasing private education. Government or religious organizations may have supported these in the past but increasingly profit has become the driver for change. There is increasing collaboration across these traditional boundaries (Commonwealth Government of Australia). There is a more seamless transition between primary, high schools, tertiary education and the workplace.
Organisational structure in education is becoming more horizontal, decentralised based on academic centres. These are now accountable towards learners’ needs and resource allocations. Teaching is more learner centred, non linear, recursive, engaging, self directed and relies less on academic input. There are many more people accessing higher learning and international students need to be catered for. Students prefer home based study and wish to speed up the learning process.

Student/ enrolment trends

There are larger numbers of students needing education because our goal is a smarter community and students need to learn for their jobs, careers, lifelong learning, life wide learning and an increasing number of mature age and international students. Students now shop for courses, and require flexibility to fit in study with their work, family, leisure and community needs.
Students are more likely to prefer action based, trial and error learning than theory and logic. Technology is changing the way we learn and think, possibly re-wiring the pathways we use in our brains. Technology can do many of the things, like rote memory, that we used to do. Knowing how to find what we need and where to find it is now more important than content (Siemens, 2005).
There are more women and minority groups accessing learning. Students with higher past educational achievements and life experience require recognition for prior learning and may be more challenging to teach (Partow-Navid & Slusky , 2005)

Pedalogical drivers
The old concepts of the teacher transmitting knowledge and the school acting as a knowledge bank are rapidly changing (Spratt, Weaver, Maskill & Kish). New pedagogies for the future include Papert’s theory of constructionism; Piaget’s constructivism; Siemen’s connectivism and Downe’s network theory of learning which seek learner collaborative, action based building of knowledge (Siemens, 2004; Siemens, 2006; Verhagen, 2006; Downes, 2006; Net Pedagogy Portal Team; Bruckman, 2003). These pedagogies fit well into the virtual online classroom (Case, 2007).
Pedagogical design for learning will be driven by technology and student’s needs by anchored instruction, situated learning, problem solving, shared decision making, dialogue within authentic, real- world situations (Hepple et al, 2004).
Learner issues.
There are different learner styles. Some students learn informally, silently without teacher input. Other students need a safe, supported trustworthy learning space within which to work (Gulati, 2004). The savvy, digital natives are way ahead in collaborative, reflective and analytic thought and are likely to teach the teachers and other students (Brumfield, 2006).
Curriculum issues
Learning is an evolving process. In the past we have seen the mimetic stage of modelling socio-cultural heritage. Learning then became more symbolic with the use of speech, narratives and myth building. Theorising transcended this process although all three processes remain meaningful pedagogies. The technology age has driven a fourth stage of learning via enhanced collective memory, virtual culture and three way learning (learner, tutor and computer) by externalised symbols and symbols processing. We have moved from classroom to the computer virtual space and delegation of some of the work to the computer and even times when the computer becomes central to the process of learning and drives the pedagogy (Riley, 2007). The curriculum is now plastic and created by the learner within a collaborative, collectivist driver (Edbauer 2002).
Tools issues
Pedagogical tools are rapidly advancing with new technology creating a whole new classroom for the future (Lowe, 2006). Video, sound, and text are becoming whole sensory learning environments with ‘real-time’ experiences (Solvie, 2005)
Critical literacy pedagogy gives students the tools to use the discourses of complexity, design, and interactive engagement (Simmons, 2006).
Coping with changes
There are many ways to cope with the changes driving the future of education. Some will be early adopters of change and be leaders and innovators (Spratt, Weaver, Maskill & Kish). The majority will be resistant to change due to anxiety but will eventually follow (Lick & Kaufman, 2005). Some will remain unchanged and become increasingly isolated and anachronistic.
Current futurists argue that planning for change, educating everyone into the changes monitoring change drivers and the process of change is better management than collective random responses. Planning for the future needs to be holistic at the macro level but also integrate with the micro level drivers (Lick & Kaufman, 2005). Research is needed to inform innovation, proactive policy development, and organisational change (Spratt, Weaver, Maskill & Kish). Some people advocate a ‘big bang’ approach towards radical change whereas others prefer a slower, adaptive, evolutionary change (Owens, 2005).
Quality needs to be maintained despite the push for quantity so that universities do not become ‘diploma mills’. The emphasis of technology over content will depersonalize learning. There is a new poor and disadvantaged of the computer illiterate. The issues of property rights on the Internet, incompatible technologies and economic rationalism need to be addressed (Navarro, 2000).

Where to from here
Using the seven dichotomies and four pillars (learning to know; learning to do; learning to live together; learning to be ) of education, a number of future scenarios has been planned.
Table 1
1 the global and the local.
2. the universal and the individual.
3. tradition and modernity.
4 long-term and short-term
5 competition and equality of opportunity.
6 the expansion of knowledge and the capacity of individuals to assimilate it.
7 the spiritual and the material.
The Seven Dichotomies in Educational Planning
(Ministry of education NZ, 2005)
No changes. This model is termed the fortress school. Perhaps we can add some Information Technology to the systems but essentially education remains a closed system. This model is unlikely to be sustainable.
Use a market/ economic model, which will promote diversity, competition and privatisation towards best practise. It will promote a user pays system and create an educational divide.
Schools become core social centres with leadership in information, technology, learning and education for the community. This could be called a brick and click centre.
Schools become learning centres with flexible, innovative, quality centres of excellence highly networked using information technologies.
De-schooling with information technology in the central role of learning networks. Using this model, students will learn from home and community resources. There is emphasis on life long learning and blurring of the boundaries between initial and life long learning and students learn in a virtual, cyber-space community. Some courses would be assisted by teachers but others would be autonomous units (Hepple et al, 2004 ; Cartelli, 2005).
With community consultation, the last option is the preferred direction. Possibly all models will be active for some time. There is an obvious need to teach teachers, parents, school-boards, administrators, computer software companies to manage the new technologies towards these planned changes (Bigleow, 2005).

CONCLUSIONS
The arrow of time as we know it is unidirectional. Our lives are a journey within the evolution of our history and our future. To say that we have arrived or know where we stand is a momentary illusion. The acceleration of change has become more obvious over the last few decades. Futurism predicts that we have some control over the direction we take by analysing our present drivers and extrapolating them into the future. This paper has briefly examined some of the drivers relevant to education. These drivers are in parallel and interrelated. Plans for futures in education have led to some exciting trends. Planning for these changes will require a new and central role for educators. It will also require new pedagogies towards the new education models.


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